THE ELECTION BAROMETER

BAROMETER: 1018 mb

Readings at and above 1000 mb indicate a win for the candidate of the incumbent party in the White House (Democratic nominee Kamala Harris). Readings below 1000 mb indicate a win for the candidate of the non-incumbent party (Republican nominee Donald Trump). My [very rough and amateurish] methodology is explained further below.

MOMENTUM

The polling average seems to be steady at a small lead for Harris of just under 3 percentage points, and in the campaign right now, neither candidate seems to have much momentum over the other.


Last updated: 30th September 2024

LATEST BAROMETRIC READINGS

Reading Date
1018 mb 28th Sept.

WEIGHTED POLLING AVERAGE (FIVETHIRTYEIGHT)

Aggregate (pp) Date
Harris +2.8 28th Sept.
Harris +2.4 24th Sept.
Harris +2.8 20th Sept.
Harris +2.7 16th Sept.

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT'S ELECTION FORECAST

Win Probability (pp) Date
Harris +16 28th Sept.
Harris +10 24th Sept.
Harris +20 20th Sept.
Harris +22 16th Sept.

Note: FiveThirtyEight's polling and forecast data can be found here.